OK, so let’s take stock with whats left. What might be in store for the world championship? RAI Average points haul over the last 15 races is 9.2 points. If he was to step up to VET’s average of 16.4 FER (a big ask) it would still be almost mathematically impossible to fight for the lead or hope to secure a constructors championship. BOT has just been too strong. We, therefore, assume team orders will be implemented and RAI will become little more than a wingman for Ferrari and Vettel.
Even IF VET upped his CURRENT average to that of HAM’s he would still need HAM to RET at least one and finish another GP in 1st place with HAM in at least second to take the lead assuming HAM’s average form stays consistent.
Based on last years form, if the “the needle returns to the start of the song, and we all sing along like before”, HAM would win the driver’s championship by 98 points.
Taking into account 2016 points haul, HAM is at 74 % from his 2016 total, VET is 117% so he does have a certain hope, but what might that look like?
In short, IF VET won every GP from now on and HAM came 2nd, HAM would still lead by 3 points. One 3rd place from HAM and it is game over for drivers champ.
Average finishing positions in 2017 between them are VET 2.6 to HAM’s 2.5 so there would have to be a big change from VET, and a big dip from HAM.
There is almost nothing between their average form but VET’s RET in Singapore is now really hurting.
Let’s assume everyone is working on next years car and current form remains, and we see one DNF from HAM and a 1st from VET and its Vettel’s title by three points. Hamilton has completed every single race this year and never less than 7th place so chance has been on his side, is it due to run out?
One thing we do know is that Ferrari are strong in almost all conditions, and we know that the Merc “diva” has developed somewhat of a sweet spot but only in certain conditions, and it’s not too good in the heat this year, on the face of it Merc seem unsure why, and its about to get quite hot, right until the end.
Last year the standings of position 1-3 stayed the identical (Lewis being dominant in the last 4 races) … Que wingman.
Expect a RAI / HAM or BOT / RAI crash in the last 5 races…or a banana up the tailpipe.